ARCHIVE 2011, COURSES, BUSINESS
Valentina Esposito, in December 2010
In the previous We have examined the issue of operations on the Stock Exchange to be understood as a business, emphasizing the lack of proper reflection in this regard by the majority of traders often lead to failure.
It 'good to ask questions, regarding in particular their intentions and their viability : ask why you want to trade, trying to go beyond the obvious purpose of gain, think about what you want to get, what you want to meet personal needs, on how long you plan that it must spend to achieve the desired performance.
One wonders also how much time you can devote to trading, in order to avoid 'mistake to focus too close in time task that requires much more effort extended .
You can not improvise traders without having to behind a solid experience, gained with deep knowledge of markets and instruments , not separated by a full awareness of its limitations and its own peculiarities, a good natural ability combined with experience can then be transformed into a real talent if powered by a commitment and passion, a continuous updating and the ability to adapt to the inevitable mutability of the stock market. Know the instruments on which work is fundamental, and whether their strategy is applicable to these tools is equally important.
Wondering if your activity involves the interest and expectations of other people, and what mutual psychological implications, it is important to manage the emotional involvement, already very strong in this type of activity.
must also be given on the preparation and start-up: where will play, how long can spend, based on what parameters will choose a brokerage firm or bank, which types of software, hardware and technical assistance I need to start with, which I will have to bear the initial costs, where it came from my initial venture capital.
Il buttarsi a capofitto in un'attività senza neanche pianificare i costi di avviamento è da annoverare tra le cause di insuccesso nel trading!
Altre domande importanti riguardano i flussi di cassa: da dove proviene il denaro che utilizzerò per il trading, da dove proviene la mia riserva economica in caso di emergenza e che cosa è in grado di coprire, quali saranno le mie spese mensili di gestione, se e come sarò in grado di continuare in caso di risultati negativi prolungati nel tempo.
Ultimi, ma non per importanza, i sistemi e le metodologie di trading : su quali mercati e strumenti voglio operare e su quale orizzonte temporale; quale sistema di trading voglio adottare, quali conoscenze e tecnologie informatiche sono necessarie per usarlo, in quali condizioni di mercato è applicabile e se dispongo di un sistema di controllo sulle sue eventuali disfunzioni; se ho predisposto un sistema di back up immediatamente operativo in caso di blocchi o malfunzionamenti della linea Internet, dell'hardware, del software...
Questo esame dettagliato di tutti gli aspetti pratici è una tessera importante di quel mosaico in cui ci piace raffigurare la nostra attività di trading e ci aiuterà ad evitare the most common mistakes that lead to failure.
ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE: WHAT IS
methods devised to try to predict the trend of stock prices is fall into two broad families: fundamental analysis and technical analysis . The requirement of 'technical analysis is that knowledge of past events helps stock prediction of future, because the reasons and factors that influence human behavior tend to repeat themselves.
Then, according to technical analyst, without considering the merits of the situation and the prospects of a listed company, the mere price of a series of titles containing useful information to predict future performance.
Historical data of prices can be studied on a chart or analyzed using mathematical algorithms. From these two approaches derive the main variants of the technique:
- the 'analysis graphics, which tries to visually identify in particular geometric graphic questions (eg, double top, head and shoulders, etc.).
- the ' quantitative analysis, which processes the data numerical calculations of prices and volumes of various types and complexity, to derive various indicators of buying and selling.
AND ITS QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TOOLS
The advent of computers has much increased the popularity of technical analysis because ha reso possibile manipolare enormi quantità di dati, generando grafici istantanei e personalizzati.
Oltre a tracciare linee simili a quelle disegnate "a occhio", il computer invita a effettuare calcoli, per estrarre dalle cifre altri elementi potenzialmente significativi: è il campo d'applicazione dell 'analisi quantitativa , che estrae dai dati una larga varietà di "indicatori e oscillatori".
Questi strumenti e quelli dell'analisi grafica possono essere impiegati nei cosiddetti trading systems, sofisticati programmi per PC che al verificarsi di determinate condizioni forniscono segnali di indicazione for the purchase or sale.
Here are some of the indicators and oscillators are in:
moving average (moving average)
E 'of the media' Last time you want to consider: for example, 60 days is the average price over the last 60 days. Every day, the value of the last day enter into the calculation and that of the first day of the series comes out. The result of this "mediation", shown on the graph of departure, is a line that keeps the general trend - up or down - the series original, but flattens and smooths the ends, deleting random movements and a little better and highlighting the significant underlying trend. But there is also the risk of damp too, and do not recognize, or to detect late, unexpected but important changes.
exponential damping (exponential smoothing)
produces a flattening similar to moving average, but instead of removing from the calculation, over the old to make way to that of the most recent days, reduces the weight of the past with a stylish, compact formula, such as:
damped new value = old value x 0.95 + 0.05 x price last day
The two numerical coefficients (here 0.95 and 0.05) must add up 1, and their ratio determines the greater or lesser amount of damping (the weight of the past with the latest developments). The second is called "damping factor", or "alpha", and an alpha of 0.05 (one twentieth) as a moving average smooths approximately 20 days.
Momentum
E 'ratio between the change in price and the time during which this change occurs. It 'also known as "speed of innovative" and draws a line that flattens to slow down the speed of change, therefore, provide an appropriate signal can be reversed.
Stochastic
follows from the observation that the closing price of a title is often placed close to the maximum or minimum of the day, depending on whether the trend is bullish or bearish. Then the case "unusual" to new heights along a bullish trend, but with daily closings away from the daily maximum, you may think to a weakening of the positive trend. Stochastics, for example 10 days, is expressed with values \u200b\u200bfrom 0 to 100, depending on the final price expected to lie close to the minimum or maximum of the last 10 days.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
E 'obtained by the ratio of average price increases of the daily average of positive and negative decreases in days This relationship is then "normalized" so that a number between 0 and 100. This measure should help to differentiate between the times of excessive demand (over 70: the situations are at risk of falling, such overbought) and excessive supply (under 30: the situations are, of understatement, called oversold).
ROC (Rate of Change)
is obtained by dividing the price at a certain day for the same price recorded n the first day. E 'then a rate of change, and produces a graphical indicator that oscillates around a central reference that line of balance.
Runway cyclic
It 's the difference between price and average days mobile percentage of the value of the same moving average. Positive and negative values \u200b\u200bindicate the ratio respectively expansions and recessions.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: WHAT IS
methods devised to try to predict the trend of stock prices are divided into two major groups: fundamental analysis and technical analysis . action from the ownership of a fraction of a company, and to evaluate the price seems logical to wonder what the total value of the company.
For this fundamental analysis, to predict whether prices rise or fall of an action, the first question: What company is it? as a work? in that market? against such competition? with such prospects?
analyst carefully examine fundamental financial statements, corporate information and market analysis, interview customers, suppliers and even the management (to understand what it's worth) ... Anything can be used to arrive at estimated earnings from the dividends to shareholders and thus the "true" value of the company and then action.
At the end of the analysis, if the market price is more convenient to buy low, sell high if more ...
To predict the future capacity to produce profits and therefore dividends, you must consider many factors:
- some relating to general economic : the political situation, the crisis stage or expansion economy;
- Other related particular situation of the company: the sector in which it operates and its specific operational reality.
structural analysis and incoming macroeconomic data
A clear example of influence of macroeconomic factors on stock prices is the impact (beneficial) of a devaluation on firms with a significant export share in turnover. Suddenly, their products become more competitive and grow profits expected, solely on the basis of a decision made "from above" by the monetary authorities.
However, such decisions monetary policy - or of other fiscal policy, which are also relevant to corporate income statements - you can sometimes anticipate keeping an eye on macroeconomic data of the country here, in order to predict the course of action, it becomes important to analyze the overall economic situation and also the political climate.
Anche se l'economia è lontana dall'essere una scienza esatta, l'osservazione dei principali indicatori economici generali può aiutare a prevedere l'evoluzione futura della situazione del paese.
Partendo dai dati più recenti resi noti dagli istituti statistici e con l'ausilio di teorie e modelli macroeconomici, l'analista cerca di predire gli sviluppi futuri di crisi o espansione dell'economia, tenendo conto anche dei presumibili interventi delle autorità politiche e di governo della moneta.
Ecco alcuni indicatori macroeconomici :
Gross domestic product (GDP)
measures the value of goods and services for final consumption (that is not intended to be used in production processes). It is calculated quarterly, and is the most important macroeconomic indicator, since it expresses the overall development of components that fuel economic prosperity of a country.
After two consecutive quarters of decline in talking about "recession."
Inflation
E 'increase the level of prices, expressed as a percentage change of a price index. This can riferisi to different economic sectors: consumer, producer or wholesale. The last two indices often anticipate the first, providing the first signs of revival in inflation or drowsiness.
real interest rates
are calculated as the difference between nominal interest rates and the rate of inflation. They can also be negative when nominal interest payments do not cover inflation.
Balance of payments
It 's the difference between revenue and expenditure of foreign exchange against domestic currency. 'S determined jointly by the balance of "import-export" and capital movements.
A negative value can be caused both by imports higher than exports, a typical signal of overvaluation of the currency, either by capital flight, a typical sign of lack of confidence in the stability of the currency and the country's future.
Public debt
E 'the total value of the debt accumulated over the years and funded by a State usually by issuing bonds. Not to be confused with the "deficit", which is the excess of expenditure over income in one year only. In the Treaty of Maastricht is considered excessive public debt exceeds 60 percent of GDP.
Unemployment Rate
It 's the percentage of unemployed in the workforce of a country.
ETF - An alternative to normal funds
David Biocchi
many small investors are wondering whether you can handle themselves in the style of their savings to investment funds avoiding costly operating expenses?
groped To break free from the cost of the asset management of Banks, investment firms or similar entities, many have chosen the "DIY", clashing with the difficulties that financial markets daily offering to small investors (the Statistics are unforgiving in this respect).
In fact, to solve this problem, there are some very interesting products such ETF (Exchange Traded Fund or traded fund on the market), which fully comply with this requirement with very low operating costs, usually around 0.5%.
The ETF is an open-end fund whose shares, made by institutional investors, correspond to a basket of shares that faithfully reproduces the composition of a benchmark index, such as our S & PMib or Nasdaq 100 , Euro Stoxx, Dow Jones etc.: its value derives from the fact that the ETF has, for example, Tim 100,000 shares, 50,000 shares Eni, Enel 40,000 ...
This structure allows the value of the ETF to follow passively and completely faithful in the performance of reference, with a minimum deviation called "tracking error", usually less than 1% . It should be added that the ETF tied to indexes Americans, are contracted in Euros and subject to exchange rate risk. There are also ETF ethical, and bond index.
The advantages offered by the ETF are significant: unlike traditional funds, there are no annoying additional costs which the Board of entry, di uscita e di perfomance. Inoltre il prezzo dell'ETF cresce ulteriormente nel tempo sia con l'incasso dei dividendi delle azioni presenti in portafoglio, sia grazie ai proventi dell'attività di prestito a terzi dei titoli detenuti.
E' quindi molto semplice calcolare il valore reale del fondo, che è detto Nav ( Net Asset Value ) e si determina moltiplicando il numero di azioni di cui il fondo è composto per il loro valore corrente sul mercato, aggiungendo gli incassi da dividendi e prestito titoli e sottraendo infine i costi di gestione. Il Nav di ogni ETF viene giornalmente comunicato da Borsa Italia; da questo valore, generally divided per cent, you get the price that the ETF will have on the market, where it is negotiable as any action.
With only the cost of commission to be paid to your intermediary (such as a .9 per thousand for customers of an online broker) to buy stock in a real background, fully transparent and make them easily understandable and comparable.
The ETF also offers guarantees excellent liquidity, as the fund manager also serves as the Market Maker, and is obliged to maintain the proposed purchase and sale on the market at a spread, ie price difference between buying and selling, which can reach up to 1%.
Given the opportunity to purchase or liquidate their shares quickly to online and there are no constraints on the minimum amount to invest, do not underestimate the ability to manage themselves in a real-time accumulation plan ( CAP) custom, given the low incidence of intermediation costs. Investors are more likely to implement trading strategies of short selling, to try to earn even during depressed markets, or use the ETF for intraday purchases and sales operations, taking advantage of the volatility.
For those who frequent the Internet, in the section of the site of Italy bag you can find more detailed information about these innovative funds. courses and events
